Fresh Bread and the Geography of Discontent: The 'Pain' of Local Service Deprivation and Far-Right Voting in France

This study investigates the relationship between local infrastructure decline and far-right voting behaviour in France, focusing on the symbolic and functional role of boulangeries (neighbourhood bakeries) in rural communities. By combining commune-level data on local infrastructure with vote shares for the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) over multiple election cycles, this paper uncovers a significant association between boulangerie closures and increased RN vote share, particularly in rural areas reliant on nearby employment centres. The analysis employs two complementary methodologies—panel two-way fixed effects regression and difference-in-differences estimation—to ensure robust results. Findings reveal that for each boulangerie closure in affected rural areas, RN vote share increases by at least 0.2 percentage points, with effects persisting across multiple elections. In contrast, no such relationship is observed in urban or autonomous rural areas. These results emphasise the importance of local infrastructure as both a practical necessity and a cultural symbol, with its decline fostering perceptions of neglect and discontent. By situating boulangerie closures within the broader debate on the geography of discontent, this study highlights how infrastructure decline strengthens far-right identification. The findings underscore the importance of private services to mitigate rural decline and address the socio-political repercussions of local service reductions. Future research could extend these insights to other forms of infrastructure and explore the interplay between citizens' perceptions and objective measures of decline.